Friday, August 8, 2008

The Probability of Rumors Being True

This is just fun here-say that got started when a peer of mine, (Thanks Kofi) got me going:

If 30% of all rumors are "stupid",
And if one half of the remainder of the rumors turn out to be "close to true",
Then 70% of that half could be "closer to true",
Making 50% of 1/2 of those "more than likely true".

Uh...

What I just said was that out of every 17 rumors, 1 is more than likely true...
Some of the time.  Trust me, I just piped the above equation through Excel.

I think I just hurt my brain.

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Hi - sorry for the confirmation but I need to weed out the noise from the well intended comments. Thanks for leaving a note... - Bruce